ABSTRACT
COVID-19 has become a matter of serious concern over the last few years. It has adversely affected numerous people around the globe and has led to the loss of billions of dollars of business capital. In this paper, we propose a novel Spatial-Temporal Synchronous Graph Transformer network (STSGT) to capture the complex spatial and temporal dependency of the COVID-19 time series data and forecast the future status of an evolving pandemic. The layers of STSGT combine the graph convolution network (GCN) with the self-attention mechanism of transformers on a synchronous spatial-temporal graph to capture the dynamically changing pattern of the COVID time series. The spatial-temporal synchronous graph simultaneously captures the spatial and temporal dependencies between the vertices of the graph at a given and subsequent time-steps, which helps capture the heterogeneity in the time series and improve the forecasting accuracy. Our extensive experiments on two publicly available real-world COVID-19 time series datasets demonstrate that STSGT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms that were designed for spatial-temporal forecasting tasks. Specifically, on average over a 12-day horizon, we observe a potential improvement of 12.19% and 3.42% in Mean Absolute Error (MAE) over the next best algorithm while forecasting the daily infected and death cases respectively for the 50 states of US and Washington, D.C. Additionally, STSGT also outperformed others when forecasting the daily infected cases at the state level, e.g., for all the counties in the State of Michigan. The code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/soumbane/STSGT.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic brought unprecedented levels of disruption to the local and regional transportation networks throughout the United States, especially the Motor City---Detroit. That was mainly a result of swift restrictive measures such as statewide quarantine and lock-down orders to confine the spread of the virus and the rising number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths. This work is driven by analyzing five types of real-world data sets from Detroit related to traffic volume, daily cases, weather, social distancing index, and crashes from January 2019 to June 2020. The primary goals of this work are: i) figuring out the impacts of COVID-19 on the transportation network usage (traffic volume) and safety (crashes) for the City of Detroit, ii) determining whether each type of data (e.g. traffic volume data) could be a useful factor in the confirmed-cases prediction, and iii) providing an early future prediction method for COVID-19 rates, which can be a vital contributor to life-saving advanced preventative and preparatory responses. In addressing these problems, the prediction results of six feature groups are presented and analyzed to quantify the prediction effectiveness of each type of data. Then, a deep learning model was developed using long short-term memory networks to predict the number of confirmed cases within the next week. The model demonstrated a promising prediction result with a coefficient of determination ( R2 ) of up to approximately 0.91. Furthermore, six essential observations with supporting evidence are presented, which will be helpful for decision-makers to take specific measures that aid in preventing the spread of COVID-19 and protecting public health and safety. The proposed approaches could be applied, customized, adjusted, and replicated for analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on a transportation network and prediction of the anticipated COVID-19 cases using a similar data set obtained for other large cities in the USA or from around the world.